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Economic News | Headline Inflation alleviate to 15.13%y/y in January 2018



Please be informed that The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today being Wednesday, February 14th, 2018, released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2018.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation started the year 2018 increasing by 15.13%y/y in January 2018. This was 0.24% points lower than the rate recorded in December (15.37%) making it the twelfth consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year on year inflation since January 2017. Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index.

On a m/m basis, the Headline index increased by 0.80% in January 2018, 0.21% points higher from the rate of 0.59% recorded in December 2017.

Based on the CPI classifications, the Food sub-index dropped moderately to 18.92% y/y, 50bpslower than 19.42% reported in December while on a m/m basis, the food sub-index retreated up to 0.87%, representing 29bps higher than 0.58% posted in December.

The Core sub-index (all items less farm produce) stood at 12.10% y/y, similar to the rate posted in December while on m/m basis, the index moved up to 0.68%, representing 17bps higher than 0.51% reported in previous month.

In line with broad CPI, the urban and rural indices (localized prices) treaded downward. The urban index dropped marginally to 15.76% y/y, representing 2bp slower than 15.78% posted in December. Similarly, the rural indexd ropped to 14.76% y/y, representing 26bps lower than 15.02% posted in the prior month.
The % change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending January 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 16.22%, showing 0.28% point lower from 16.50% recorded in December 2017.

Outlook for February 2018
We expect to see a lower inflation reading in the month of February to 15.00%.This, we expect will be aided by on going harvest season of some food items, such as tubers and vegetables coupled with expected naira exchange rate stability. while on the adverse; generally unchanged energy prices, delayed upward review of the national minimum wage, and average to above-average domestic food production.


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